Showing posts with label numeracy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label numeracy. Show all posts

Monday, March 23, 2015

"To Help Us Serve You Better ...." (27 Oct. 2013)

Always have people on the street more radical than you are.
"Sheep have input into the decision-making process of the shepherd."


            There was a time ca. 1967-70 when young people were out on the streets in much of the industrialized world and times of long, hot summers when Black Americans were out in significant numbers, with a number of respectable-size riots. Those were good times for moderate-Lefty activists.

            As we know now, looking back, the "wave of the future" ca. 1970 wasn't with young radicals on the street, but with the Donald Rumsfeld's and Dick Cheney's, the Karl Roves, Newt Gingrich's and Lee Atwater's: the Young Americans for Freedom sorts who were quietly reinforcing the Backlash that started by 1968 and has been with us unto this day.

            We had an inkling of the building backlash in Champaign-Urbana, Illinois. To start with, there was that Man on the Street who formulated the issue as, "What it's all about is 'Who's in charge?'" — and in the couple decades to come Who's In Charge sure wasn't going to be Students for a Democratic Society or the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee. A stronger hint came from the lady in the Urbana bank who bemoaned the fact that only four demonstrators had been killed at Kent State U in Ohio. Less sensationally, but more to the point here, I had one hell of a strong inkling of things to come when I had to address a demonstration on the U of I quadrangle, put on a tie, and then go inside the Illini Union building negotiate: We didn't have enough radicals to fill out a "demo" haranguers program, so I had to fill in as a ringer.

            Fortunately, however, most journalists are borderline innumerate and their bosses thoroughly cynical: "No blood, no news" was a real line from a Chicago TV exec from the period, and with exceptions in the more conservative media, few reporters worked through the numbers on how many students were demonstrating and what their geography and demographics were; ditto for Black people. More fortunately (if one was a moderate-Lib-Leftist activist — and I was), more fortunately, many academic and state-level politicians could get border-line paranoid and come to believe our propaganda and their own about incipient coalitions of radical students, Blacks, and young workers: various officials came to believe that they'd have to work with moderates or face the mob.

            So it was a good time to be a moderate-Lefty activist, 'cause there were radicals on the streets the authorities feared enough to offer to negotiate (even if I was hardly the only one who had to double as one of those radicals on the street).

            So rule number one here, or "Back to Basics #56": Always have people on the street more radical than you are — even if you have to get your ass out onto the street yourself.

            The Powers that Be, however, may get paranoid and panic easily, but you can't count on their being stupid or ignorant of their history. Back in the Time of the Troubles — when the pressure was on to negotiate — what they offered us was "input into the decision-making process." Savor that phrase, since it's better than you're going to get nowadays; savor it, and then repeat over and over, like a mantra, "Sheep have input into the decision-making process of the shepherd."
            I'm stealing that insight, if not the exact formulation, from B. F. Skinner's Walden Two (1948; ch. 25, I believe), except that Skinner believes that sheep with input is the correct order of things.
Even as engine noises must be taken into account by mechanics and aviators, even as sheep in their noises and behavior have input into decision-making by shepherds, even so the residents, not citizens, of Walden Two have input — through surveys, say, and suggestions — into the decision-making by the Managers and Planners who run the community.

            Now all of us some of the time, many of us much of the time, and some of us all the time would just as soon other people made our decisions for us. I for one enjoy travelling when I'm on the plane or train and the biggest decision I have to make is, on a train, what to have for lunch (in this instance, I like being powerless and without responsibility especially since if we crash, no one will blame me [some people worry about death; I worry more about screwing up]).

            Still, however occasional nice vacations into Lotus Land might be, we should keep in mind that shepherd's take care of sheep in order to fleece them — or make them into lamb chops or mutton. Even if we are in the care and control of The Good Shepherd, a being beyond the economics of real sheep-raising — even as a fat and well-protected sheep, there are problems. It's "species-ist" to say so, but sheep are pretty stupid, and humans should aspire to more control over our lives than exercised by a domesticated sheep. For another slogan: Today's frisking lamb is tomorrow's castrated wether.

            Humans should not aspire to "input" but to clout: having your ideas, opinions, desires, and interests taken seriously.

            Since the Thatcher/Reagan Era, however (ca. 1975 f.), the question of "Who's in charge" has had the answer that, The Powers That Be be fully in charge — and, for now anyway, the best you will get is not effective citizenship but "input."

            And that "input" is becoming increasingly low grade as unions have declined and "collegiate governance" and "employee participation" have become quaint theories of a thoroughly by-gone era. Nowadays you get "input" through surveys and data-mining: today's Managers and Planners' caring about your desires and concerns as necessary to manage your behavior and manipulate your consumption.


            The Great Wheel of Politics turns, though, always. I fear the next turn will bring fascistic mass movements, but perhaps the Idiocracy will not be decisive. Perhaps, just perhaps — possibly — there will be a magic moment when the right blend of radicals on the street will force the Powers That Be into serious negotiations, perhaps, just perhaps, The Powers That Be will have to cede some decent moderate Lefties just a bit of clout.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Cold-Blooded Statistics (25 Dec. 2014)

            Tying together some stories in the news at the end of 2014, from police shootings in the sense of police shooting "civilians" to police being shot, to "the campus rape crisis": We need to bring back the word and concept "disinterested," and we need more disinterested research in areas of social conflict. This is a truism, but it's difficult to achieve; recall that for years, maybe decades, there was little research on the medical uses of marijuana because the Congress of the United States — folks who weren't convinced that nicotine and ethyl alcohol (cigarettes and booze) are drugs — said that there were no benefits to marijuana, and, therefore there was no cause to spend public money looking for medical benefits.
            We need news reports where the first couple paragraphs aren't with some touching, human-interest "for instance" anecdote but a statistic: Number of times something horrific happens per 100,000 ______ (fill in variety of human) per year, or some more relevant unit of time.
            For instance ….
            How many civilians are justifiably or otherwise killed, maimed, wounded, or otherwise harmed each year by police? Assaulted or just hassled? It's hard to get statistics even for just the US, let alone for comparison across a number of countries and cultures.
            How many police officers are killed each year in the line of duty? A friend of mine in the justice system says he's pretty sure that most on-job deaths are from accidents, but he's not sure of much beyond that. Some years, police work makes the top ten for most dangerous jobs in the US, some years not. What are the dangers of police work, and how do the risks vary from role to role, from area to area in the US? In countries similar to the US
            I taught on a Midwestern college campus for 35 years, and it was a pretty safe place: one B&E at my house during the time, and I met the burglar and wasn't overly threatened. We had a couple murders near campus, and one major problem ca. 2000 with one of my students who was a serial rapist — convicted on six counts and imprisoned. And one of my students ca. 1990 had a run-in with police because of the rifles and automatic weapons in the trunk of his car (he was a gun collector and weird but licensed and not an immediate danger).
            By one definition of the word "rape" that has been applied on campuses, I've been raped by two women, but, possibly because of an insufficiently raised consciousness, I still don't believe I was in a legal or moral sense raped. Manipulated maybe; raped?, no. So I want to see some numbers on the rate per 100,000 per year of rapes and other sexual assaults on US campuses, and see how those figures vary given different legal, ethical, and colloquial definitions of the crimes or ethical lapses. And I think every reporter and pundit covering campus sexual assaults should check carefully how those rates compare with similar crimes among young women not in college. Among that overly large US prison population?
            On the torture issue — also big news in December of 2014 — we need popularizations of historical research. "Torture is not who we are," said President Obama; an article in The Atlantic suggests, nah, that's us. The historical record indicates that we Americans are currently doing better than many peoples over the centuries, but that's a distressingly low bar. What's the record of torture in US periods of fear — hanging witches and terrorizing Blacks … for instance — and what is our record during periods of imperial expansion, as in the Philippines? How often were "enhanced interrogation techniques" used in the US historically? What are the best guesses at the rate today?
            (In 1692, Giles Corey was "pressed with heavy stones" to force him to enter a plea in the Salem Witch Trials. He didn't plead but died after a couple of days, so he couldn't be found guilty, so his property wasn't confiscated and could go to his heirs. Corey may be unique in US history, but milder torture such as waterboarding and "the third degree" are not.)
            Personal stories are extraordinarily useful to put human faces on statistics; but for policy we need the numbers. Especially on controversial issues, US universities and the gov't of the United States need to get out reliable and disinterested stats, and a wide swath of people need to read and understand those numbers.

            "I feel your pain" is a decent enough thought, but it's always more or less a figure of speech and/or a lie if you're talking about pain on a large scale. Compassion is the core, the metaphorical